The data behind Bitcoin. The context to make better decisions.
Our research spans price, institutional demand, leverage, on-chain activity, mining and macro. Available data and research gaps are shown separately. One potential return stream within a diversified portfolio, not a substitute for one.
Explore the evidenceA dated price and ETF snapshot can show a research stance when JavaScript is available. No action guide is issued until its dates and inputs are checked.
How the guide worksNo valid dated snapshot
Prepared: Unavailable. Dated research snapshot, not a live feed. It does not refresh automatically; expired inputs lose their signal.
Green / consider adding: close above its 50-day and 200-day means, 50-day mean above 200-day mean, positive 90-day return, and both the latest ETF net flow and last-five-reported-row sum positive. Red / review trim: close and 50-day mean below the 200-day mean, and negative 90-day return. Positive ETF flows are then shown as conflicting evidence. Yellow / hold or wait: other valid price states, including threshold equality, disagreement or missing ETF confirmation. Gray: missing, invalid or expired core price data. Missing data is never zero.
Version gulfstream-decision-guide-0.1. These are transparent experimental heuristics, not optimized or validated predictions. This guide does not forecast tops, bottoms, prices or success probabilities. It contains no portfolio information and makes no personalized recommendation or automatic trade. The separate seven-pillar composite remains unavailable. The earlier price-heat trading interpretation did not beat its simple retrospective benchmarks and is not used as another vote here.
Two input groups: daily price history and reported US spot ETF demand. Trend and momentum share the same price source and count once. Sentiment, halving dates, CME open interest, network activity and mining scenarios are context, not additional directional votes. On-chain valuation, global leverage, macro liquidity and miner economics are not covered by this guide.
Price: The Bitcoin Time Machine / Marlow Systems LLC, CC BY 4.0 terms. Retained daily closes transformed into 50/200-day means and a 90-day return; a full extra publication day is assumed, not verified historical availability. Price becomes stale three days after its session closes. ETF: The Commoner Bitcoin ETF Tracker by TFTC, methodology and CC BY 4.0. Latest aggregate and five reported rows normalized and summed; figures may be revised. ETF data expires at the earlier of one day after retrieval or four days after its session marker. Source data and upstream rights have not been independently audited. Reconstructed snapshots are not verified point-in-time backtests.
Price: Powered by CoinGecko, used under the CoinGecko API Terms. Daily 00:00 UTC prices transformed into 50/200-day means and a 90-day return, with a full extra publication day assumed. Source methodology. ETF: The Commoner Bitcoin ETF Tracker by TFTC, methodology and CC BY 4.0. Latest aggregate and five reported rows normalized and summed. Figures can revise; neither history is a point-in-time archive. Price expires three days after its modeled close or two days after retrieval, whichever is sooner. ETF expires four days after its session marker or one day after retrieval, whichever is sooner.
0 / 2 optional price & sentiment references current. These live references are separate from the dated guide.
Load the two optional market references. All seven research pillars remain unvalidated.
Supplementary data is off. Load reference data for dated network history and weekly CME positioning.
| Tracker | Latest reading | State | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01Trend & momentum Decision-guide input | Not available | UNAVAILABLE | Source & methodFresh, complete daily-price evidence is required. The Bitcoin Time Machine ↗. One price input group, not multiple independent confirmations. See the exact rules above. |
| 03US spot ETF demand Decision-guide input | Not available | UNAVAILABLE | Source & methodReported ETF evidence is unavailable. The Commoner Bitcoin ETF Tracker by TFTC ↗. Aggregate net creations less redemptions; not all institutional capital. Last five reported rows, not a calendar week. Revisions and missing values remain explicit. |
| MARKET REFERENCEBitcoin / USD Data from Alternative.me ↗ | Not available | NOT LOADED | Source & methodOptional five-minute BTC/USD reference. Load reference data below. Source as of: Unavailable Data from Alternative.me ↗. Provider refresh is approximately five minutes. A retained quote expires after 15 minutes. |
| SUPPLEMENTARY REFERENCEFear & Greed Data from Alternative.me ↗ | Not available | NOT LOADED | Source & methodDaily Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index. A supplementary reference, not a cycle score. Source as of: Unavailable Data and methodology from Alternative.me ↗. 0 is extreme fear; 100 is extreme greed. Provider bands are descriptions, not buy/sell signals. Current history is not verified point-in-time history. |
| SUPPLEMENTARY NETWORK REFERENCEDaily network activity Diego R. Llanos · Open Bitcoin Metrics ↗ | Daily series not connected | UNAVAILABLE | Source & methodAwaiting a sanitized daily block-count and hashrate observation with its observation date, retrieval date, source, units and freshness limit. Network activity is not an on-chain valuation or price signal. Diego R. Llanos, Open Bitcoin Metrics (OBM), version 0.1.0; normalized display from pinned source data. CC BY 4.0 ↗. Observation date: Unavailable |
| SUPPLEMENTARY WEEKLY REFERENCECME Bitcoin positioning Source: U.S. CFTC · Futures Only ↗ | Weekly series not connected | UNAVAILABLE | Source & methodAwaiting a sanitized CFTC standard CME Bitcoin futures observation, position date, report type and retrieval date. Weekly open interest is not current global leverage, exchange funding or a directional price signal. Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Traders in Financial Futures, Futures Only. Position date: Unavailable |
| 02On-chain valuation | Cost-basis evidence missing | UNAVAILABLE | What is missingNeeds permitted, dated realized-capitalization, cohort cost-basis and spent-output series with methodology and vintage records. Network activity alone is not valuation. |
| 04Leverage & positioning | Cross-market evidence missing | UNAVAILABLE | What is missingNeeds exchange coverage, comparable funding intervals, open interest units, liquidations and options skew with lawful reuse, source dates and validated thresholds. |
| 05Miner economics | Measured operating inputs missing | UNAVAILABLE | What is missingNeeds dated hashprice, difficulty, fees, effective hashrate, hardware efficiency and power-cost assumptions. The calculator below is an illustrative scenario, not a current network measurement or price floor. |
| 06Macro liquidity | Series and release dates missing | UNAVAILABLE | What is missingNeeds specified public-domain liquidity, real-yield and dollar series, publication lags, revisions and historical vintages. A broad-dollar index must not be relabeled ICE DXY. |
| 07Cycle timing | No validated price-cycle phase | UNCALIBRATED | What is missingProtocol halving facts are separate from price cycles. Needs a specified price series, window, extrema rule and out-of-sample validation before a cycle phase or predictive price signal can be claimed. |
Dated research data · Experimental · Not a forecast
Refreshed daily prices: CoinGecko, under its API Terms. Chart history: The Bitcoin Time Machine, CC BY 4.0. Gulfstream computes the means.
Source: The Commoner Bitcoin ETF Tracker by TFTC, CC BY 4.0. Figures can revise. Outlined bars are outflows.
Supply and the halving date are arithmetic from block height. Loading network data asks Gulfstream’s server for the current mempool.space tip; your browser does not contact mempool.space.
The halving date is an estimate at 10-minute blocks; actual timing varies with hashrate. Lost coins are not deducted from mined supply.
A dated block record and source are required.
Elapsed calendar time, not a measure of progress toward a market top.
No calendar estimate
Requires the verified subsidy interval and preceding halving height.
Height data is off. Loading uses Gulfstream’s server, not a direct browser connection to the provider.
No timing estimate
A timing scenario would assume the protocol target of 10 minutes per block from a verified retrieval. Actual mining times vary. This does not forecast a price top or bottom.
Load reference data to view the mainnet tip reported by mempool.space. Retrieval time is not block time.
Retrieved: Not retrieved. Source: mempool.space public API ↗ · Source terms ↗. Remaining blocks, interval percentage and the ten-minute timing scenario are calculated here only from a recent valid report.
Diego R. Llanos, Open Bitcoin Metrics (OBM), version 0.1.0. Pinned source data ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗. Normalized and charted here. Missing days are left as gaps. This dated series does not provide current chain height or a live halving countdown.
A turning point depends on the price source and the window you choose. It can be identified retrospectively; it does not prove that a price cycle will repeat.
Halving milestones must cite a verified Bitcoin block and the subsidy-interval rule. A block timestamp is part of the historical block record, not a guaranteed civil-clock observation. Blocks not yet mined have no fixed calendar date. The verified interval is 210,000 blocks; the next target after block 840,000 is 1,050,000. The subsidy changes from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC per block at that target. Transaction fees are separate. The broad year estimate is the last halving’s block timestamp plus 210,000 × 600 seconds. It assumes target spacing from that event and is not updated from live chain progress. The 600-second block-time target is an assumption, not a clock or a guarantee.
Before publishing top/bottom comparisons, specify the exchange or index, currency, daily-close convention, start and end dates, local versus full-window extrema, tie handling and confirmation rule. Report the date it became knowable, avoid look-ahead bias and label the result retrospective. No such price history or rule has been validated here.
Protocol evidence not yet connected.
Market references are available. The cycle model is not yet validated. No validated composite score or strategy performance is displayed. The experimental two-input guide is separate.
Five-minute aggregated market reference.
Data is off. Loading uses Gulfstream’s server; your browser does not connect to the data provider. Refresh pauses while this page is hidden. No saved choice.
Not an executable exchange quote. Updated approximately every five minutes by the provider, not tick-by-tick.
Our cycle research brings seven perspectives together, from market momentum to on-chain valuation and capital flows.
Complete, lawfully reusable inputs and out-of-sample validation are required. All seven pillars remain unavailable for scoring.
Bitstamp market · official TradingView chart
Loading contacts TradingView, which receives browser and connection information and may use its own storage or cookies. The provider’s privacy terms apply. Quotes and chart notices come from TradingView; check source time and availability. This is not an executable price.
Bitcoin / USD chart by TradingView · Provider privacy
Chart not loaded. This display is separate from Gulfstream’s own research inputs.
Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index · Daily reference as of Unavailable
0 means extreme fear; 100 means extreme greed. This third-party sentiment index is not Gulfstream’s cycle score and is not an instruction to buy or sell.
Seven perspectives, one disciplined framework. Unavailable data stays unavailable; missing pillars are never quietly reweighted.
Moving averages, momentum, drawdown and realized volatility.
Dated guide available; composite not validatedCost basis, realized value and spending behavior.
Free source review pendingETF creations, redemptions and participation breadth.
Dated ETF guide available; broader coverage missingFunding, open interest, liquidations and options skew.
Free source review pendingHashprice, difficulty and estimated operating margins.
Live inputs not connectedReal yields, the dollar and broader liquidity conditions.
Series selection pendingHistorical peaks, halvings and market-cycle context.
Event history not validatedEvery figure needs a source, timestamp, vintage, unit and permitted use. No imputed ETF flows before January 2024.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) only. Quarterly reported capital-share transactions for through .
USD, rounded to the nearest $0.001 billion. Net is rounded from the exact reported amount, not from the rounded components.
Includes cash and in-kind capital transactions. This is not a cash-flow measure, daily ETF flow, or an aggregate across Bitcoin funds. It is unaudited historical financial-report data, not a current flow or investment signal.
Filed · Primary source: IBIT SEC Form 10-Q ↗ · Filing details ↗
Exact amounts in whole US dollars: contributions +$4,285,909,689; distributions -$7,236,496,312; net capital-share flow -$2,950,586,623. Contributions plus distributions equal net.
The lower transaction block on printed page 3 runs from March 31 to June 30, 2026. These are Q2 amounts, not the six-month year-to-date totals. They are not calculated from changes in assets under management or bitcoin holdings.
This pinned historical reference was checked . It is not a live feed or a claim to the latest filing. It is not a point-in-time series, was not available at quarter end, and is not used for forecasts or the cycle score. The separate daily ETF-demand guide uses reported fund flows, not this quarterly record.
Not the revised history available now. The backtest foundation separates publication time, ingestion time and data vintage.
Historical comparison awaits lawfully reusable point-in-time data. No synthetic returns or unverified turning points are displayed.
Explore an illustrative network-capacity scenario. These inputs are assumptions, not current measurements.
Calculate estimated electricity cost per BTC at $0.03, $0.05 and $0.08 per kWh.
If you enter measured effective hashrate instead of capacity, set uptime to 100% to avoid applying uptime twice.
Bitcoin offers a distinct monetary network and a highly volatile market. Its role depends on the investor’s total portfolio, horizon, liquidity needs and capacity for loss.
Its relationship with stocks, bonds and gold varies materially across measurement windows and market regimes. Correlation can rise during stress. Diversification is not guaranteed downside protection.
Correlation comparisons require identified assets, lawfully reusable sources, currencies, return definitions, aligned trading times, sample dates and rolling windows. Comparisons must show their full measurement window and limitations.
A sensible allocation weighs several potential return streams and failure modes. This page is general education, not a recommendation for a particular allocation or a promise of returns.
Hats, sneakers, layers and small things for your everyday. Explore the Bitcoin designs in Gulfstream’s swag store.
Crowns for the long game.
05 piecesLightweight, quietly loud.
04 piecesHeavyweight layers for cold-storage weather.
04 piecesFrom the desk to the run.
04 piecesA little Bitcoin underfoot.
01 pieceNotes with a point of view.
01 pieceStickers and a candle with conviction.
05 pieces24 listings checked November 3, 2026. “From” prices were checked November 3, 2026; product links open Gulfstream’s Shopify store, where current prices, options and availability are shown. Merchandise is separate from investment research.
The weights have not been calibrated. An incomplete or unvalidated model returns no composite score, not a partial score dressed as precision.
WATCH, REVIEW ADD and REVIEW TRIM are research workflow states. No broker connection, order submission or automatic portfolio adjustment exists.
Client portfolios, private research and analyst decisions belong behind separate access controls. This page contains no client information.
Lawfully reusable inputs, reliable sources, a 30-day replay, validation and human release approval are required before a proprietary cycle signal is published.
